#3047 "September 17th Warm Frontal Cloud"

#3047 "September 17th Warm Frontal Cloud" 
8 X 10 oil on canvas.
Started September 17th, 2026.

It was my Dad's birthday, and I decided to quietly remember one of the very best people in my life. He and others who comprised the Greatest Generation provided the peace and security necessary for democracy, without which the creation of art would be challenging. He would have loved the Singleton Sanctuary - surrounded by nature. 

A frontal system was sprawled west to east across Lake Ontario. There were hints of undulatus asperatus (officially called asperitas) clouds shaking in the stable layer of the warm frontal surface. The clouds can look really dramatic at sunrise or sunset as a wave-like ceiling that looks like the surface of a rough ocean viewed from underwater. This painting was really about that atmospheric ocean. 

Asperitas clouds are distinct cloud formations that resemble ocean wind waves and swells billowing in a stable sheet across the sky. The World Meteorological Organization officially added them to the International Cloud Atlas as a supplementary feature in 2017, making them the first new cloud classification added in over 50 years. 

Frontal surfaces typically provide the stable layer that can shake like a sheet on a clothesline when exposed to strong winds and wind shear. The shallow 1:200 slope of typical, slow-moving warm frontal surfaces provides a more extensive "sheet" and opportunity for the best examples of asperitas clouds. Cold frontal surfaces are typically steeper, with a slope of 1:50 and move faster, propelled by the push of the cold air. 

I have painted Asperitas clouds several times over the years, well before they were named. I simply referred to them as dramatic gravity waves on a stable layer. I agree that "Asperitas" sounds more academic. See #2510 "Singleton Asperitas" and #2550 "Portsmouth Harbour Asperitus". There are certainly other examples within my portfolio that might not include "Asperitas" in the title.  

Subtle variations in colours included on the canvas came and went with the morning light. The lake was like glass and called to me. The canoe would go for a ride after this morning painting session was complete. The following collage depicts the plein air experience that is hard to match in the Studio. Sometimes, something intangible gets onto the canvas from the atmosphere of the inspiration. 

I use art and science to stay current as I try to better appreciate nature and the beauty of the Earth. The existential threats to nature continue to escalate. The science of the climate crisis began in the early 1800s and has only improved with better satellite sensing technology. Some of the irreversible tipping points have been thoroughly investigated.  Uncertainty in the complex interactions of the planet still exists, especially among those striving for exhaustive enlightenment on the informed extreme of the Dunning-Kruger Graph. Many of those have been described in my Art and Science posts over the years. 

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of special concern! The AMOC is the system of currents that transport heat and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe. Fresh meltwater from Greenland is floating on the North Atlantic, resulting in the weakening of the three-dimensional currents that are powered by gravity. Those currents could collapse, bringing “ice age” winters to Europe, raising sea levels in North America and messing with the Asian monsoons. The AMOC did shut down after the meltwater of the last ice age 11,000 years ago.  

Direct oceanographic arrays (such as RAPID measurements) and long-term climate proxy studies consistently confirm that the AMOC has entered a weakened state. Reconstructions suggest the AMOC is currently at its weakest state in over 1,000 years. AMOC has slowed down 20% since the 1950’s and 14% since the 1990’s!! Flow decreases approaching 40% will flip on its head in the next 40-50 years! 

There is still a lot of uncertainty, but that is no reason to do nothing...

The chain reaction of burning fossil fuels and putting Pandora's Gift Box of carbon back into the atmosphere started in the 1850s. The rate of carbon release continues to escalate with no signs of any abatement, as illustrated in the above graphic. Total greenhouse gas forcing in terms of CO2 equivalence (573 ppm) is even more startling when the impacts of water vapour, methane and other related gases are added.

The impacts will be catastrophic beyond human comprehension. Some research suggests that the AMOC tipping point is centuries away; some think decades, while others feel that the Earth has already crossed that line. The exact truth will not be known until it happens, and then of course, it will be far too late. 

The scientific fact is that we still do not have all of the answers. The simulations and models are certainly incomplete and inaccurate. There’s no precedent for what’s happening, and the Earth is warming much faster than we ever thought possible. But we continue to study and learn!

One must stay current to have an informed opinion. The graphs are the scientific and observational truth. I share that information freely with my art, choosing to speak while the corrupt flout the laws of society, buying votes and bullying nations. The pillars of society - Justice, Equity, Freedoms, and Representation embodied by the Legislative, Executive, Judiciary, and Media, are being intentionally destroyed (or simply purchased) as the billionaires seek world dominance.  The solutions are well known - as are the perpetrators.

D.N. Chadwick was a voracious reader and lover of nature. He was humbly wise and self-educated. Not a billionaire, but far richer, surrounded by nature. His quiet and calm character exuded far more integrity than any politician I have ever known. People like my father provided this generation with the freedoms that we enjoy and are carelessly squandering. 

For this and much more art, click on Fine Art America or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick  

#3046 "Singleton Lily Pads"

#3046 "Singleton Lily Pads"
10 X 8 oil on canvas.
Started September 11th, 2026.

The variations in green at my feet contrasted beautifully with the dark colours in the water. A soup of duckweed mingled with the much larger lily pads. Shafts of startling red from the undersides of the pads introduced complementary and startling shocks of colour. One might think of this as an abstract or artificial design, but the reality of the mix of colours and shapes in nature cannot be denied. 

Turing was a real genius ahead of his time.
His efforts shortened WWII, but his story
ended tragically. 

I was also contemplating the issues of Artificial Intelligence as I remembered the events and aftermath of 9-11-2001. It was challenging to separate fact from fiction in an effort to discover what really happened and who was responsible. AI muddies the water, distorting what is real and what might be fake - but convincingly so.

The threat of Artificial Intelligence to an intelligent, informed society is real and far greater than most people fear. The online world of bits and bytes has become an illusion. Safe, collaborative, supportive and creative interactions are threatened by persuasive, personalized AI-driven phishing scams. The only solution for peace of mind might be to go dark.

AI's potential for good is incredible, but the risk of bad is equally large. The evil side of AI has already been witnessed even at this early stage of development. AI would become the modern, lawless "Wild West" if the POTUS approach is condoned. Trump claims that AI safety fears are a 'hoax' as he rejects calls for greater safeguards. Climate change is also a 'hoax' according to him, but let's not go there. On September 14th, 2026, President Trump stated, 

"The only control or 'guardrails' that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades!" 

Ridiculous and bombastic claims... not worthy of any recognition.

AI is the realm of high-tech billionaires racing for "intelligence supremacy" and ever more wealth and power. French novelist Honoré de Balzac wrote the following original thought in 1835: "Behind every great fortune is a great crime". Winning at any cost, with the ends justifying the means, is a very dangerous path even if it might be "legal"! Laws can be changed with the stroke of a "Sharpie" by politicians employed by the wealthy.

High-tech billionaires have shifted dramatically away from the "hacker utopianism" of early Silicon Valley toward right-wing "techno-authoritarianism" with a strong rejection of democracy. Billionaires tend to pay lawyers rather than taxes that support the values of society. 

Simply, what has gone wrong historically can easily happen again. Those who are really in control have terrible and sinister track records. Some are even convicted felons, and most should be.

The only solution might be to power down the modems and streaming services. Instead, plug yourself into reality and actual connections with neighbours and friends who live nearby. Forest bathing surrounded by nature can become a prime activity. A quiet paddle replaces the 200 HP outboard on the bass boat. Those vinyl discs, CDs, and DVDs might come in very handy. A rocking chair on the porch sounds nice too.

Powering down can have significant costs. Real friendships forged during a lifetime of interactions, now maintained on life support via the worldwide web, might be lost. Of course, distance and time do not impact the dearest and closest friends, but there are many people we deeply value that will quietly and sadly drift away. Updated links to real, honest news would have to be forged. The Narwhal is a good choice. It won't be easy, and there will be challenges. The circle will get smaller… but safer.

By going dark, you might find the light and potentially be more content surrounded by simpler truths and nature.  Just saying.

The duckweed and the lily pads at my feet made a lot more sense than the news. A recent Narwhal article exposed some strong evidence that “Nobody cares about climate anymore”.  How can people NOT CARE about existential threats to all of nature? People?

The green weeds were calming and reassuring, and I felt comfortably alone in nature as I painted. 

For this and much more art, click on Fine Art America or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick  

#3045 "Maple Island Reflections"

#3045 "Maple Island Reflections"   
8 X 10 oil on canvas.
Started September 11th, 2026.

There was a single maple tree growing out of a cleft in the marble rock. That tree qualified this piece of real estate as an island. To count as an island in the Thousand Islands region, a piece of land must stay above water year-round and support at least one living tree.

The official Thousand Islands Island Criteria sound very precise! 

• Water level: The land must remain visible and above water 365 days a year (year-round).Size: It must have a minimum area of at least one square foot (0.093 square meters).
• Vegetation: It must support at least one living tree (some local descriptions or sources note two trees or shrubs, but the core rule requires continuous plant/tree life). Once it qualifies, it keeps its status even if the tree eventually dies. 

These local rules help authorities officially count the archipelago at 1,864 distinct islands along the St. Lawrence River. I paddled many of them as a kid in the 1960s and 70s. 

Another source defines an island as "a naturally formed piece of land completely surrounded by water that stays above water at high tide." 

There are no appreciable tides on Singleton Lake! This rock can be almost submerged during spring floods, but the maple survives. 

I was standing on aptly named (by me) "Finger Point" on the sheltered eastern shore of Singleton Lake. The name stands out like a shore thumb, even from Google Earth. My friend John Verburg dropped by for a visit while I painted and provided a photo of me out standing on that point. 

Twenty-five years earlier, at about the same time, the skyline of New York City was marred by twin smoke plumes. And the world changed... 

I completed the following three paintings that morning well before noon. I paint until I get tired. Art is work. It takes a lot of energy to get that vitality into the oils and the brushstrokes.

For this and much more art, click on Fine Art America or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick  

#3044 "Singleton September Streets of Stratocumulus"

 #3044 "Singleton September Streets of Stratocumulus"   
8 X 10 oil on canvas.
Started September 11th, 2026.

I described my motivation for participating in the 24th Official International Plein Air Painters Worldwide Paint Out in #3041 "September Morn Ancient Red Cedars". That is something I have done every year in remembrance of the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York City. 

The southwesterly winds drifted the smoke plumes from the Twin Towers of New York City on the beautiful September morning. The calamity was even obvious from space. 

I was on the marble shore on the sheltered eastern bay of Singleton Lake by 7:30 am on September 11th, 2026. I will continue to paint en plein air every Anniversary of September 11th while I am able. 

For this and much more art, click on Fine Art America or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick  

#3043 "Point Paradise Relic Red Cedars"

#3043 "Point Paradise Relic Red Cedars" 
12 X 10 oil on canvas.
Started September 10th, 2026.

I described my motivation for participating in the 24th Official International Plein Air Painters Worldwide Paint Out in #3041 "September Morn Ancient Red Cedars". That is something I have done every year in remembrance of the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York City. 

It was great to get outside again after a summer of intense heat, humidity and wildfire smoke. The following data reveals that the conditions we experienced were also felt around the world. Billions of observations go into making this simple graph. 

Standing quietly on the edge of an ancient cedar grove on a rocky marble point can be very strong medicine for anything that might ail you. Turning off the noise of news, helps as well. 

For this and much more art, click on Fine Art America or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick  

#3042 "Cold Frontal Signature in Cloud Script"

#3042 "Cold Frontal Signature in Cloud Script"
8 X 10 oil on canvas.
Started September 10th, 2026.

I described my motivation for participating in the 24th Official International Plein Air Painters Worldwide Paint Out in #3041 "September Morn Ancient Red Cedars". That is something I have done every year in remembrance of the September 11th, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York City. The world lost some precious characteristics that morning. It has been an ongoing struggle to rebuild honour, trust, and integrity. Democracy is even threatened. 

After completing those ancient cedars, I turned my easel cyclonically to watch the cold frontal cloud exit to the south. The northwesterly winds were brisk and increasing in the wake of the cold front that had crossed Singleton Lake earlier in the morning.

Every line in the sky was real and spoke of a steep cold frontal surface and wind shear. Reading "Cloud Script" is not that hard, and it makes weather watching that much more informative. For this post, however, I will refrain from describing all of the distant cloud details. As Albert Einstein remarked:  

“It would be possible to describe everything scientifically, but it would make no sense. It would be without meaning, as if you described a Beethoven symphony as a variation of wave pressure.” 

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world.” 

I am not Beethoven or Tom Thomson, but have described these cloud patterns and wind shear many times before, so I was content just creatively interpreting what I saw before those clouds vanished beyond the southern horizon. Letting the brush strokes speak for themselves, as encouraged by Albert. 

The cool and clear air of the cold air mass was very much appreciated after a sweltering summer of heat, humidity and wildfire smoke. The contrast brought by the cool Arctic air reminded me of a Canadian Association for the Club of Rome (CACOR) presentation by Ralph Torrie: "Prometheus’ Fire or Demeter’s Harvest? Energy Myths at End of Fossil Age". I would highly recommend both this lecture and CACOR in general. Torrie's talk was both positive and uplifting. Torrie emphasized that humans might leap past midnight on the "Doomsday Clock" into something much brighter. The future might yet be rescued by people with such optimistic outlooks!

Torrie is a student of Greek mythology and used it effectively to illustrate two very divergent future paths. 

Prometheus represents human advancement, science, defiance of tyranny, and the price of enlightenment. When Prometheus tricked the gods and stole fire, Zeus retaliated not just by punishing Prometheus, but by sending a cursed "gift" to humanity: Pandora's Box. Our Prometheus released the magic of carbon from Pandora's Box. The consequences of that action have been the accumulation of carbon dioxide through almost three centuries of industrialism, extraction, colonialism, consumerism and capitalist greed - simply the Climate Crisis where the billionaires profited. Clearly Prometheus' future is not sustainable.

Demeter is the Greek goddess of agriculture, grain, and the harvest. The name Demeter roughly translates to "mother earth". Demeter's approach is for smaller, sustainable approaches, living in harmony with nature. 

One slide from Torrie's presentation is included below. It summarizes the divergent paths for energy distribution and life. 

We have tried to follow Demeter at Singleton Lake with the goal of not wasting energy and using the sun as much as possible. Our home features:

• Passive solar design.
• Triple-glazed windows
• Maximum insulation with airtight ICF (Integrated Concrete Form) construction. R45 outer walls.
• Solar hot water roof-mounted system (80% efficient) for domestic hot water and augmenting/supplying the in-floor radiant heating storage tanks.
• Solar PV  (about 20% efficient) MicroFIT (10 kW) followed by net metering in 2032 when the twenty-year contract expires. The grid-tied MicroFIT also circumvents the need for storage batteries by using the power grid for when the sun does not shine. 
• Open-loop geothermal heat stored in large storage tanks. That energy is used for in-floor radiant heating 
• Ductless Mini-Split Heat Pumps for air conditioning- heating or cooling down to minus 30 Celsius. 
• Heat storage in slab-on-grade (6-8 inches of concrete) - no basement, thus no risk of radon gas or an unwanted, accidental indoor swimming pool.
• Stone exterior for thermal mass. 
• Spray foam insulation for all sloped attic surfaces and blown-in cellulose for flat areas. R60 at least in the attic areas. 
• Lifetime metal roof.
• Deciduous trees from the east, through the south to the west for maximum summer shade.
• Conifers on the north side for an effective wind break. Mainly red cedars.
• A propane-powered backup generator for when the power grid fails... and it will!

Given the construction techniques, we never really expected to need air conditioning when our home was completed in 2012. Climate change has happened much faster than I thought possible. We are very relieved to have that cooling option now! Grid brownouts will become more frequent due to the Climate Crisis. 

The Prometheus "economy of scale" approach requires the centralization and distribution of services, favouring billionaire industrialists. The 20th Century has revealed the weaknesses of that approach. The rich get richer, and the poor become dependent on the monopolies of big business. 

Small, sustainable approaches can be more self-reliant and independent of massive, expensive distribution networks. The sun delivers energy to everyone's doorstep - for free. Reliability becomes achievable with multiple approaches to saving and harnessing energy. 

Demeter, aka Mother Earth, emphasizes respect for all ... waste not, want not and surround yourself with nature. Our home is like one of those in Demeter's Future above. We live remotely, so there are no neighbours. 

We do not travel, which can generate quite a sizable carbon footprint! Instead, we enjoy a quiet and creative existence at home. I paddle, paint and plant trees. Nature and the sun are always on our doorstep. 

For this and much more art, click on Fine Art America or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick  

#3040 "Peggy's Granite Prince"

#3040 "Peggy's Granite Prince"
48 X 60 by 1.75 deep  (inches)
Oils on canvas.
Started at 9:30 am
Tuesday, August 18th, 2026 

"Peggy's Granite Prince" is based on #0066 "The Granite Prince, Peggy's Cove, Nova Scotia" from the spring of 1978. I was only sixty-five paintings into my artistic journey, with a long way to go... and much to learn. That would have been painted in the spare bedroom of our apartment in the Woodlawn Mall area of Dartmouth. I only had the aluminum easel my parents gave me, which I still use today. That apartment is pictured below along with our faithful 1975 Chevy Malibu, which was simple enough to still be fixed by a home mechanic.

Good times! I really liked that painting and felt it needed a bigger and bolder format. The new 4-by-5 foot canvas alone is worth $500 without even applying any oil to it. 

Here it is set up in the back room of my Singleton Studio, where it spent late summer and all of the autumn of 2026. I would visit the canvas whenever conditions were inclement outside, and my inside chores were done. Otherwise, I spent a lot of time in the Singleton Forest.

The painting is still not complete, but I promise to update this blog when it is.

This brings back some wonderful memories of our first stay in the "Merry Times". Those thoughts flood back to me as I apply the oils to this composition a second time. There will be some changes for sure. I just do not know what they might be yet, as I sketch in the ideas. 

I decided to turn it into a more colourful summer image with towering cumulus along the sea breeze convergence line. Lobster pots and buoys were included on the dock. As in the original, the morning sun was low in the eastern sky. The shadow of the fishing shack draped across the dock. 

The morning sun would have warmed the South Shore of Nova Scotia just enough to release the convective instability inherent in the very unstable air mass. The sea-breeze convergence line was still at the shore! The tops of the towering cumulus were bent by the return flow of the sea breeze circulation aloft. With continued heating, that line would progress maybe 20 kilometres inland, taking the convective towers with it. Peggy's Cove and the South Shore would enjoy clear skies and a cool onshore breeze from the Atlantic. The following summarizes the science behind the very important sea-breeze convergence line conceptual model. 

The Granite Prince was my favourite boat in Peggy's Cove. I painted it before it got radar. It was a beautiful day in the spring of 1978. There was no advection fog, which was a treat. We were out for a drive and a meal at the Sou'Wester Restaurant in the BC Era - Before Children. I painted exactly what I saw. We preferred to visit the Sou'Wester during the nastiest winter storms and be the only ones in the restaurant while huge waves crashed dangerously on the granite shore. 

The Sou'Wester celebrated its 50th Anniversary in 2018 and is still going strong. We always return when we get back to Nova Scotia. 

Shearwater was my first meteorological posting and my favourite! I would relearn that lesson with each subsequent career change. I was fortunate to be able to finish my career with COMET in Boulder, Colorado, happily publishing the science that the atmosphere had taught me over the years. 

If you wish to learn about the weather, go east, young man. The weather was always changing, and the art of a careful analysis of the science and the observations was key to understanding the meteorology and the ultimate concern of the day. I wish I had a few of those early analyses on hand-plotted maps with coloured terrain. The weather of the eastern seaboard taught me a lot. I am still learning. The staff were dedicated and keen to serve. The memories of CFB Shearwater always make me smile... but I digress. 

I did a Google search for the Granite Prince, which returned some of my paintings. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has digested almost everything ever created by humans to create a probability of what word might come next. AI has graduated from being a spellchecker to something that I find to be virally invasive. It is a struggle, but I endeavour to keep AI out of my life, preferring human errors to AI probable fabrications. The race for AI Supremacy by some nations and billionaires is a winner-takes-all brawl where the end is supposed to justify the means. Scary... but I digress... again. 

The following AI text and images even indicated that the Granite Prince radar equipment was installed after 1978, perhaps discovered from my post. 

"The 36-foot Cape Island-style fishing boat Granite Prince was a well-known fixture and working yellow boat in Peggy's Cove, Nova Scotia during the 1970s and 1980s. The 36-foot wooden vessel was frequently featured in photographs, local lore, and writings about Peggy's Cove, including several of paintings. The Granite Prince was featured in regional papers and literature capturing the daily rhythms of the village's cod, haddock, and lobster fishermen. Sadly, the Granite Prince was eventually sold, renamed, and sank in the late 1980s. 

The Granite Prince in Fine Art: Artist Phil Chadwick captured the vessel in its prime with his painting, The Granite Prince - Peggy's Cove. His work depicts the iconic boat floating peacefully in the cove's calm waters in the spring of 1978, just before it was retrofitted with radar equipment."

At the time, during my first stint as a meteorologist in Nova Scotia, it was gently suggested that I find another place other than Peggy's Cove and the South Shore to paint... The distinctive yellow hull of the Granite Prince stands out in three of the paintings... now four.  

For this and much more art, click Fine Art America or go straight to Collections or the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick 

#3041 "September Morn Ancient Red Cedars"

#3041 "September Morn Ancient Red Cedars"
10 X 12 (inches) oil on canvas.
Started September 10th, 2026

I was out early in the morning, standing on the marble of "Point Paradise", exposed to very gusty northwest winds. A cold front had passed by an hour earlier, and the skies were clearing. I was there to remember and honour the heroes of 9-11. 

Why paint to remember 9-11, Tuesday, September 11th, 2001? That's a legitimate question. 9-11 represents unimaginable hatred and destruction. Those were very dark days.  But countless examples of hope also emerged. The open doors and generosity of Gander and Canada turned airline passengers from strangers into friends and then family. There is hope. 

In this century, the "Century of Fire", the momentum of climate change will transform Earth into conditions last experienced around 3 million years ago, during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period. By 2099, or perhaps sooner, global temperatures will average more than 3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels of 1850. Some predictions are even more dire but very plausible given the recent news that “Nobody cares about climate anymore".  Several nations are embracing a fossil-fuel-free world.  Canada is not one of those... Green energy and circular economies can make a difference but Canada continues to subsidize the fossil fools. Still, there is hope. 

Perhaps beauty pageant contestants were right all along. They dreamt of goals like the following:

• World Peace through international diplomacy 
• Education for All
• Eradication of Hunger and Poverty 
• Distribution of basic human resources like clean water and air
• Universal Healthcare
• Universal Rights of Nature 
• Worldwide action on the Climate Crisis
• Freedom of the Press
• Honest Politicians with integrity and character

This is just a snippet of a very, very long list, but a good place to start. All of those items are well beyond the means of the individual. The last one is mine! The collective will and cooperation of all citizens are required.

Most of us now have the right to vote, but an increasing number of citizens fail to exercise that privilege. When a majority of the above "hopes" fail, as they have, the result is an uneducated, uninformed populace ripe for populist rule. Such "leaders" serve only their interests and those of their friends. The research of Dunning and Kruger describes the creation of "Mount Stupid". 

The threats of Artificial Intelligence are also very real and can help to populate "Mount Stupid". Democracy fails without intelligent and informed voters. The result must be a version of "1984" or perhaps a "Brave New World". AI could also decide that humans are an unnecessary burden... to be exterminated... perhaps employing an AI-designed virus... AI could also be employed by populist politicians to rewrite history, muddying the line between fact and fiction.

The future is always uncertain, so we must live and work in the present. The Serenity Prayer is a secure place for me to fall back on...

• Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
• Courage to change the things I can, 
• And wisdom to know the difference.

The good people of Gander had the courage, compassion and generosity to do everything that they could in that time of great need. 

Gander International Airport during 9-11

Embracing the past and fearing the future as a remembrance of 9-11 begs another question. Why paint at all? 

Art, science and nature are things I have always had faith in.  Those are things I can maybe comprehend and contribute meaningfully toward. They are positive and can become beacons for hope in the present and for the future. So I paint on... and share everything, endeavouring to do the right thing. 

8 am Thursday September 19th, 2026, the eve of 9-11 on Singleton's Point Paradise

These twisted red cedars on the marble of Point Paradise continue to thrive in the harsh environment. I have painted them several times. The red cedars are severely stunted by the extreme conditions they survive in - yet they persevere!  Their exact age is unknown, but they must be ancient! Remembering 9-11 felt like another opportune time to preserve them on canvas. 

The oldest known red cedars found in the rainforests of British Columbia are estimated to be between 1,000 and 2,000 years old. The oldest confirmed white cedar on Ontario's Bruce Peninsula started growing in 688 AD, making it roughly 1,338 years old (in 2026). 

Trees can survive where harsh environments protect them from logging and fire (basically people). The Carolinian forest on the eastern shore of Singleton Lake was and remains inaccessible. It has never been logged, and I still plant new trees every year. 

So I paint out of respect for the greatest generation who sacrificed much in the past to provide this opportunity in the present. I didn't want to waste the chance to paint something that might be good, that might brighten another's day or encourage them to think about brighter subjects: trees, the weather, the wind... So while there is still hope, I will still paddle, paint and plant trees ...

For this and much more art, click on Fine Art America or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick  

#3023 "Next Adventure at Parry Sound" Part Two

#3023 "Next Adventure at Parry Sound"
20 X 24 inches, oils on canvas.
Started at 9:15 am, Wednesday, June 24th, 2026

There is nothing really unique about this particular deformation zone, which I described in #3023 "Next Adventure at Parry Sound". Some features require a bit more description so that when you witness another deformation zone, those additional lines will speak to you and tell a more complete tale about the weather. 

Satellite data was a very new tool when I became a meteorologist in 1977. Weather was not to be discovered within the intersection of Venn Diagrams! The atmosphere was much more complicated and beautiful. My artistic background fused with the satellite patterns that we were witnessing for the first time. 

The Chinese "yin and yang" philosophy describes how seemingly opposite forces are actually complementary, interconnected, and interdependent. That philosophy is so very true. I could "see" yin and yang in the satellite patterns. They speak to me. Nature and the weather are all about balance. 

While in Edmonton in 1980, I attended a presentation by Roger Weldon of NOAA (1937-2023). His lecture opened a lot more doors, including the deformation zone conceptual model. 

Skip ahead a decade or two of studying the real atmosphere. Night shifts were the best for really concentrating and learning while preparing the all-important first forecasts for a new day. I  sketched the following patterns countless times for anyone who might be mildly interested. The pattern on the left below shows how a constant-area rectangle of moisture must be deformed in a divergent streamline flow on an isentropic surface. That box of moisture would morph into a line and never proceed past the col and the two confluent asymptotes which comprise the deformation zone conceptual model. The approaching flow is split, with one curving cyclonically (probably rising) and the other turning anticyclonically (probably subsiding). The real atmosphere taught me these lessons.

The pattern above on the lower right illustrates what can happen when the straight-line deformation zone (DZ) is distorted. There are three distinct DZ flavours: Convex (above lower right); the Double Cyclonic Pattern and the Double Anticyclonic Pattern (below left). Convex and concave DZs are the same pattern of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices, only differing in your perspective.

The shape of the deformation zone reveals the types and relative strengths of the four vortices that underlie the deformation-zone conceptual model. This provides a much deeper understanding of the weather without any mathematics. 

Search for any or all of "wind, waves and swells" in The Art and Science of Phil the Forecaster. There will be several posts that explain in more detail what follows below. One post you might consider is Wind Waves and Swells and Lines in the Sky

The most interesting flow in the atmosphere is the warm conveyor belt since it is responsible for most of the weather we experience. 

The jet core located between the X and the N in the above graphic is responsible for strong vertical motions, which essentially shake the isentropic levels of the atmosphere like a blanket. These vertical motions create strong wind waves like on the ocean. These waves propagate with the flow, evolving into swells, a long distance from where they were first created. The rising crests of the swell are more likely to be thick clouds than the descending wave troughs. The thicker clouds in the gravity waves make them more apparent to observers. It is important to remember that water vapour and clouds are tracers for atmospheric motions, but those motions are always present with or without tracers. 

The crests of the swells behave in the same manner as the constant-area boxes of cloud in my simple sketch above. Multiple lines of cloud and no cloud crowd into the deformation zone, one for each swell. 

Wind gravity waves superimposed on the swells can also be generated along the confluent asymptotes of the deformation zone. These gravity waves occur on both sides of those asymptotes but require tracers to make them visible. The best spot to see them is in the anticyclonic companion of the warm conveyor belt. The following graphic attempts to describe this process. 

Swell-Wind-Wave Graphic

The following is another attempt to describe the process. I had written "The Radar Palette - an Operational Approach to Radar Meteorology" for COMET back around 2009. It was modelled after "The Satellite Palette"  but remains unpublished. 

I realized that a bit more explanation was required to clearly describe the interaction of swells and wind waves. My hand-waving approach at the Weather Centre was sometimes sufficient but not for this. The Swell-Wind-Wave Graphic above was intended as a tool to deduce what the addition of gravity waves might look like for any condensation level. The following illustrates that application for the anticyclonic companion of the warm conveyor belt. The result reproduces what nature actually constructs. 

The above descriptions and conceptual models are intended to explain the remaining bits of meteorology that were included in #3023 "Next Adventure at Parry Sound". The patterns we see in nature really make sense. The laws of physics create the patterns effortlessly. With a little deduction, we can comprehend what they mean. The following graphic describes each of them.

Note that the blue sky only appears in the very bottom of the swell trough and the wind wave trough in my painting. The swells are quasi-perpendicular to the wind waves along the confluent asymptotes away from the deformation zone col. This is an example of condensation level 4 in the Swell-Wind-Wave Graphic. 

Finally, distinct deformation zones occur at different levels in the atmosphere, even though they may appear to be at the same level when looking down from a satellite perspective. Each quasi-horizontal cloud layer intersects the three-dimensional deformation skin, creating a linear feature. In contrast, gravity waves (wind waves and swells) occur on the same stable layer in the atmosphere. 

Gravity waves are always perpendicular to the flow creating them. The deformation zone parallels the generating flow when those winds are increasing in speed. In decreasing wind speeds, the deformation zone is perpendicular to those winds. 

The following real-life deformation zones viewed from the ground illustrate how the cloud lines intersect the three-dimensional deformation skin that encloses the warm and moist air mass. 

For more illustrations of the deformation zone conceptual model, you may be interested in the following. 

#2568 "Thursday Sunset Swells" ; #2991 "A Swell February Morning" ; Applied Conceptual Models on the Space and the Earth Views

Dustin Hoffman as Rain Man

This additional explanation was required to completely describe those Parry Sound clouds. It is unlikely that anyone else would explain these patterns except me.

I actually do an acceptable interpretation of Dustin Hoffman's "Rain Man," although I am not acting. Perhaps we are all on the spectrum... and that is not necessarily a bad thing. Being dyslexic has actually been good for my art and science.

Many thanks to my friend Cam for being intrigued by what he saw in the sky.

If anyone wandered this far into the murky depths of cloud lines and patterns, you deserve a "Gold Star". Thank you so very much for taking the time and caring about the yin and yang of cloud patterns and nature. 

For this and much more art, click on Fine Art America or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint Collection. Thank you so very much for reading, and stay well!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick