#2984 "October 25th Singleton Sunset"

#2984 "October 25th Singleton Sunset" 
16 x 20 (inches) oils on stretched canvas.
 Started 9:30 am on Monday, November 3rd, 2025

The western shore of Singleton Lake was in darkness at 6 pm on Saturday, October 25, 2025. If you look closely, the details of the homes can still be seen in the dim. The west basin of the lake was rippled by the northwesterly breeze and thus reflected the sky overhead. The eastern basin in the lee of the Singleton forest was calm and mirrored the sunset hues. The stratocumulus clouds were shaped by the brisk upper winds. The low water levels had recovered a bit, and only the head of the "swimming bear" could be seen adjacent to the second "Turtle Island". I never tire of the natural beauty of the Frontenac Arch Biosphere. 

Now for some interesting science. 

Everything in the atmosphere ocean can be described as either lines or swirls. The two are intrinsically connected through the Deformation Zone Conceptual Model. The interactive connections between lines and swirls are explained within the three-dimensional fluid. Every sky is an opportunity to apply these basic principles. You can start with either a line or a swirl. They both lead you to a better understanding of what is actually occurring in the world around you. In sharp contrast, I find it is best to never try to understand politics; nature actually makes sense. 

The following satellite images summarize most everything that you need to know. Every line and swirl tells a story. Singleton is located at the yellow star. The large occluding low was well to the southwest.

The deformation zone conceptual model can be applied to my ground-based painting location. Singleton, located at the yellow star, was actually under the small cyclonic swirl on the opposite side of the large deformation zone that was controlling the larger weather pattern. 

The col in the deformation zone can be found along the divergent edge of the relative cloud-free delta-shaped zone; the green triangle labelled "D" in the above graphic. Neither companion of the warm conveyor belt can effectively deliver moisture into this "Bermuda Triangle" of the atmosphere. The rising anticyclonic circulation on the warm, right side of the jet stream carries high, cirrus clouds. The descending dry and cold conveyor belts spin up the cyclonic swirl, especially at mid and lower levels of the atmosphere.  Lower layers of cloud get caught up in that cyclonic swirl but are not directed into the green triangle. 

Young and developing systems will typically not have the high-level cirrus flow wrapped cyclonically around the low/X swirl. I have grey-stippled out the cyclonic branch of the high-level cirrus flow in the following graphic to illustrate this point. That cirrus, cyclonic branch is only seen in older and mature weather systems referred to as cut-off or occluded lows.   

The relative intensity of the swirls, as diagnosed from their size and shape, can reveal much about the age, strength and motion of the storm.  The low/X swirl in the storm of October 25th was more pronounced than the high/N and actually included the high-level, cyclonic cirrus flow. The occluded low was mature, strong and slow-moving. 

As a brief refresher, it is important to remember that the atmospheric patterns are churned within the atmospheric frame of reference, moving with the mean flow. My easel is affixed to the rotating Earth, which is a very non-inertial, or accelerating, frame of reference. This means that an object in this Earth frame will have an acceleration even if no real forces are acting on it.

Because of the Earth's rotation, objects appear to move in ways not explained by real forces alone, requiring the introduction of fictitious forces like the Coriolis force and centrifugal force. The Coriolis force deflects moving objects, causing them to veer right in the Northern Hemisphere and left in the Southern Hemisphere. This is the essence of the Coriolis Hand approach I use to describe the resulting horizontal and vertical motions in the atmosphere. It is most appropriate that your right hand is your Coriolis Hand if you live in the Northern Hemisphere, and your left hand should you live south of the equator. The rotation of the Earth greatly impacts large-scale movements of air and water, and the effects are explained by the Coriolis Force for the sake of convenience.  

A previous painting, #2982 "Singleton Sunset on the Ides of October", goes into some details on the important conceptual models and their application. You can also find more information in The Art and Science of Phil the Forecaster Blog. 

This time, let's just appreciate the peace and quiet of a sunset created by the small cyclonic swirl well ahead of the storm. The weather does not need to be big to be beautiful. 

For this and much more art, click on Pixels or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint 2024 Collection. Thank you for reading!

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick 

#2983 "October Sunrise Thunderstorm"

 #2983 "October Sunrise Thunderstorm"
16 x 20 oils on canvas. 
Started 9 am on Sunday, November 2nd, 2025

Distant flashes from a cold frontal October thunderstorm were visible in the night sky, which was still very dark at 6 am. There had been no mention in the forecast, but the lightning was clear. The light was enough to wake me up, so I decided to get up and enjoy the show. It was then that I decided that the unusual sunrise colours and clouds needed to be interpreted in oils. Those rich rose, and golden hues would not last long - just minutes...

I charged right into the oils on these thunderstorms. Paintings #2981 "Singleton October Sunset on Summer" and #2982 "Singleton Sunset on the Ides of October" were not nearly completed and still very wet. But I needed to get these new colours down on a canvas.  I also needed to write down the many memories that flowed while I painted.

Meteorological overview from 6:40 am, Wednesday, October 22nd, 2025

Some very thoughtful people, like physicist Richard Feynman have some very refined techniques they employ to thoroughly learn about a subject. In summary, that approach goes something like the following.

"If you want to learn something, read about it. If you want to understand something, write about it. If you want to master something, teach it". 

One can add "paint it" to that quote. The swirl of the brush with the accurate colours I witnessed revealed dynamics and structures that were not immediately obvious. I really got to know those October sunrise thunderstorms during this exercise. My goal was to communicate and share those insights through the textures and colours on the canvas. 

Richard Feynman also believed that “the world is much more interesting than any one discipline.” There is a big difference between knowing the name of something like "thunderstorm" and knowing the dynamics of a "cumulonimbus". That summarized my approach to meteorology in general, but also everything I experienced in nature. Understanding the physics of the structures in a conceptual model allows you to use that knowledge more broadly on another convective day. The process of immersing oneself in the environment allows one to sense and really appreciate what reality is, and maybe become a better plein air painter. 

I always strove to become a better teacher, too, even if that was not in my job description.  The goal was to learn about the heart and soul of science and the planet. So much so that I might be able to translate the complicated jargon and math of textbooks into simpler conceptual models that anyone with an interest might easily understand. This process takes much longer, but the effort is worthwhile.

One needs to quietly reflect to reach into those depths. The late sixties atmosphere in high school at the Brockville Collegiate and Vocational School, BCIVS, provided the luxury of time to do just that. BCIVS was a terrific opportunity to absorb knowledge and to participate in music and sports. I loved learning and excelled. 

The next opportunity for such reflection came during night shifts at the various weather centres across Canada, where I worked as a meteorologist. "Eureka" moments would often come after such contemplation. Thoughtful examination of the reality of hand-plotted weather maps and hard-copy satellite imagery was essential. The atmosphere could be understood and brought to life through imaginative mental conceptual models. I shared everything with my coworkers, and sometimes I was successful in lighting that flame in others. Good times. 

Thankfully, teaching and creating learning materials officially entered my job description after a 2004 competition and the ultimate educational opportunity at COMET in Boulder, Colorado. 

It was an absolutely wonderful and productive final decade for my official meteorological career - real science and service in the company of passionate professionals. Imagine creating 3D water vapour imagery and immersive virtual reality conceptual models that one could walk through! Many of my midnight-shift eureka moments were finally published, and I am blogging the rest as time permits. 

Richard Phillips Feynman 1918-1988

So there is the story of some unforecast, nocturnal cold frontal October thunderstorms and my simple philosophical foundation for a happy life. 

• Be voraciously curious, 
• Never stop learning,
• Remain passionately empathetically helpful,
• Surround yourself and family at all times with nature,
• Stand up strong and be counted for what is obviously right.
• Remain respectful, but always be cautiously skeptical of authority. Power can corrupt. 

Richard Feynman did all of these things and would be a wonderful role model for any generation. Feynman's quote to the right is intended with a positive slant to encourage the cultivation of the arts so that we might all better understand. The arts need to return to the educational system...

To be clear, the science that Richard Feynman exemplifies is under attack... and not just in the United States. Corporations profiting from fossil fuels are still very much in control. There has been no abatement of the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 

For this and much more art, click on Pixels or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint 2024 Collection. 

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick 

#2982 "Singleton Sunset on the Ides of October"

#2982 "Singleton Sunset on the Ides of October"
16 x 20 oils on canvas
Started 9 am on Saturday, November 1st, 2025

The sunset colours were striking. One of the challenges would be to do those hues justice on canvas. The other trick would be to explain what the clouds were saying. Both the weather and the colours begged to be accurately depicted. 

The surface winds were light northerly in contrast to the southwesterly winds at the level of the altocumulus clouds. I watched the cloud masses drift toward the northeast, perpendicular to the leading edge. The virga precipitating from that deck of altocumulus clouds appeared to be heading northeast as well, but faster than the cloud! Can the wind below the cloud deck actually be faster than that moving the cloud? Strange! Meanwhile, the ice crystals wafting down from the cirrocumulus appeared to be drifting toward the south. How can we make any sense of this? I can explain.

I watched this sunset and can categorically confirm that the surface winds were light northerly. Singleton was within the cool northerly outflow of the ridge of high pressure on the cold side of an approaching warm front. 

Both layers of clouds were drifting toward me, propelled by southwesterly winds. The drift of the cloud masses toward the northeast confirms that a warm conveyor belt was approaching Singleton Lake. This was consistent with Singleton still being within the cold air. 

The following satellite images and the surface map summarize the meteorological situation. The water vapour imagery indicated that Singleton was under the anticyclonic companion of the warm conveyor belt.  This information is crucial to understanding the clouds.  That sunset sky was full of illusions. 

For those of you who are interested to learn a bit more meteorology, the following graphics will guide your journey, starting with a description of the Warm Conveyor Belt Conceptual Model. The explanations of the conceptual models can be skipped if you wish to jump to the final graphic that details the reason behind the drift of the virga and the observed winds. 

The next step is to employ your Coriolis Hand to decipher the Deformation Zone Conceptual Model. The deformation zone is a divergent flow stretching clouds outward from the col that marks the centre of the contrasting circulations. My favourite conceptual model!

With this information, you can deduce the probable weather by knowing which companion of the Warm Conveyor Belt is overhead. This information will not be on any exam, so no worries!

Now that you are familiar with the concepts, the following graphic summarizes all of the information. 

Now, back to the specific meteorology displayed in the October sunset sky and the painting. Remember that the clouds are always right. We just need to be careful how they are interpreted. 

All of the evidence confirms that Singleton was under the anticyclonic companion of the warm conveyor belt. That area, as described in more detail in the above graphic, is less likely to receive significant precipitation. Also note that the cirocumulus are organized into gravity waves perpendicular to the divergent flow in the atmospheric frame of reference. This could all be deduced without any of the satellite images, just by watching the drift of the cloud masses and individual cloud elements. Art and science actually do make sense. 

The virga illusions result from our non-inertial, rotating frame of reference. The clouds and virga are shaped by the relative winds solely within the atmospheric frame of reference.

How does one look at the relative winds and motions in the atmospheric frame of reference when we are stuck, spinning on the Earth? The average wind guiding a weather system will be in the same direction as the jet stream, only slower. Any motions perpendicular to the jet stream will certainly be the result of winds within the atmospheric frame of reference. These lateral motions will always be the result of a deformation zone. In this sunset, the altocumulus elements producing the virga had a pronounced motion to the left along the anticyclonic confluent asymptote of the deformation zone. 

Situational awareness is also a good place to start. For example, large Singleton storms typically form over the Gulf of Mexico and emerge from the southwest. Alberta Clippers approach from the west or northwest. Practice and ongoing weather watching will teach you everything you need to know?

Finally, here is the simpler, take-home message that anyone can apply. You just need to watch the clouds.

All lines are deformation zones. Deformation zones are typically perpendicular to the average wind. If the cloud along the deformation zone edge is shearing to the left as it approaches, the anticyclonic companion is approaching you. Cloud shearing to the right means that the cyclonic companion and more weather is on the way.  

The water level was probably as low as it would get. Autumn rains were due to arrive with synoptic-like weather systems similar to the one producing this sunset. The three rocky shoals, which are typically totally submerged, were still well-deserved islands. The swimming bear only surfaces in extreme drought. This was the first time in twenty years that we had seen that rock. We had witnessed numerous real swimming bears over the years, but not this boulder version. Every time we glance at the drought-stricken lake and that characteristic rock, we think it is a swimming bear. 

In a drought situation, any mention of precipitation will get everyone's attention. A meteorologist has to be very careful in using those terms. I recalled that we did not get much rain, if anything, from this system. That would be consistent with the anticyclonic companion of the warm conveyor belt passing overhead. Now you know why...

The sunset beaver was typically punctual, and I included my friend in this painting exactly the way it appeared. There are normally two sunset beavers that paddle at sunset to our shoreline to harvest trees. It is nature. I do not interfere.   

For this and much more art, click on Pixels or go straight to the Collections. Here is the new Wet Paint 2024 Collection. 

Warmest regards, and keep your paddle in the water,

Phil Chadwick