#2341 "Singleton Altostratus Sunset"

I wanted to capture the dull glow of the late afternoon sun shining through the thick layers of altostratus. The warm conveyor belt from the next storm was approaching Singleton Lake. The sky was dark and foreboding and it was still very much like winter for March 18th. The typical progression of the weather is that this cloud would thicken up into nimbostratus which would produce the rain. In fact that was also the official forecast. "Altostratus coming at us" was the same prediction implied as with "cirrostratus coming at us".

Water Vapour Image of the Warm Conveyor Belt

The arc of the confluent asymptote of the deformation zone was evident in each layer of the cloud. There were several layers of the moisture in the atmosphere west of Singleton Lake and each display the characteristic arc. The cloud elements were moving to the right indicating that the cyclonic portion of the system was headed towards us. One can confirm this by pointing the fingers of your right hand in the direction of the cloud movement. Your thumb must be pointing up.

The rain from this system actually passed by just south of Singleton. It was close but all we saw was the virga wafting down from the altostratus as I subtlety included in the weather observation I call a painting. The rocks were dry when I got up the following morning. Errors were a fact of life in the weather centre. A wise meteorologist would continue to analyse and diagnosis the atmospheric motions and quickly detect the change in the weather script. A revised forecast or amendment was not so much admitting a mistake but reflecting the complexity of the real atmosphere and making the weather forecast closer to the evolving truth.

A yes or no deterministic forecast may also be what most people want. Will it rain or not? The decision is made for them. However every forecast is a bit of a gamble. The weather evolves and the laws of probability determine the outcome based on the physics of the air flows. The weather really is that complicated in the huge dimensions of space and time.

For this and much more art, click on Pixels. Thank you.