#2663 "Singleton Calm After the Storm"

#2663 "Singleton Calm After the Storm"
16x20 oils

The radar bow line of severe thunderstorms passed through Singleton Lake just after 3:30 pm on Saturday May 21st, 2022. Memories from that afternoon will linger for decades just like the aftermath of May 31st, 1985. At least ten people died with this storm almost equalling the twelve people who were killed during the Barrie Tornado outbreak. Many people will also remember the nights of July 13th and July 15th, 1995. Severe weather can be like that with memories lasting generations like Hazel from 1954. La Niña is part of a larger weather phenomenon known as El Niño Southern Oscillation and 1985, 1995 and 2022 were all La Niña years - not just coincidental. As a meteorologist, you want to work those storms and predict them to the best of your ability - to make a positive difference. Weather is important...

Watertown radar before the progressive
derecho reached Singleton Lake

The thunderstorms were cold frontal in nature. The squall line was moving at 80 km/h which was a very clear indication of severe convection producing widespread damage. We did not have any obvious damage but reports of widespread power outages soon came across social media. Trees, hydro poles, roofing shingles, flipped cars and goodness knows what else, went with the wind. Large trees were downed in the Singleton forest. 

Typically a progressive derecho relies on the high buoyant energy of a mesoscale convective system and a quasistationary west to east frontal system. The simpler definition calls a derecho "a line of intense, widespread, and fast-moving windstorms and sometimes thunderstorms that moves across a great distance and is characterized by damaging winds." Using this simpler definition, the squall line of Saturday May 21st, 2022 certainly qualifies to be called a derecho - Spanish for "straight ahead". The event was not the classic progressive or serial derecho that I have been used to during my meteorological career. In this case, I feel that the progressive derecho used the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake breeze fronts just like a derecho would employ a quasistationary baroclinic zone. Meteorology is always fascinating. 

Media Coverage was extensive after the May Long Weekend Event

"When Canadian tornado expert David Sills studied the forecast on Saturday morning, he never expected the line of storms headed for Windsor, Ont., would soon strengthen into Canada's first derecho in decades, wreaking havoc across southern Ontario and Quebec." My friend and co-worker David would also be quoted as saying "There wasn't much in the way of any indication in the models of this big derecho coming through," he said. "The computer models we rely on to give us a heads up for these types of events, they've got a long way to go." CBC News · Posted: May 25, 2022. 

I always felt and advocated that a inquisitive meteorologist had an important if not vital role to play in weather prediction - human 3D and 4D pattern recognition skills while leaving no satellite or radar image unturned until the atmospheric puzzle is solved. Computers and numerical models of the atmosphere are essential tools but apparently not always the solution. 

This is the peaceful sunset following that line of convection. Everything was calm and one would be hard pressed to think that anything severe had just happened. 

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